South Africa's population is
expected to grow at a decreased rate between 2010 and
2040 due to the impact of HIV/Aids and lower fertility
rates, a survey released by the SA Institute for Race
Relations on Tuesday predicts.
“Between 2010 and 2030, South
Africa’s population will grow, although at a decreasing
rate each year,” an extract from the 2009/10 South
Africa Survey shows.
By 2030 the population is
expected to be 53.81 million, decrease to 53.74 million
by 2035, and to 53.28 million by 2040.
This is based on data gleaned
from the Institute of Futures Research at the University
of Stellenbosch.
The SAIRR said in South Africa
the number of deaths in a year is making up an
increasingly higher proportion of the number of births.
In 1985, deaths were 25 percent
of births. The Actuarial Society of South Africa said
this would increase to 87 percent of births by 2021.
Thuthukani Ndebele, a
researcher at the institute, said: “If this trend
continues, there will soon be more deaths than births in
South Africa. It is evident that the HIV/Aids pandemic
has resulted in an increasing number of deaths.”
Ndebele said these deaths are
mostly among people in the child-bearing age group,
which will result in decreasing numbers of births.
Between 2001 and 2010, South
Africa’s fertility rate decreased from 2.86 to 2.38
births per woman.
By 2040, the fertility rate
will have dropped to 1.98 births per woman Älower than
the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which is
needed for the population to reproduce itself.
Ndebele said the lower
fertility rates were related to an increase in access to
education and contraceptives, which results in women
having fewer children.
“A combination of increasing
deaths as a result of the HIV/Aids pandemic, as well as
lower fertility rates will result in population
shrinkage after 2030,” Ndebele said.
“This can be positive as there
will be less strain on resources in South Africa.
However, it will also be negative, as there will be
fewer people to contribute to the economy and its
internal consumer markets.” - Sapa
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